Can SWTOR Sell 3 Million Copies?

Did we underestimate the potential of The Old Republic? As recently reported by Gamasutra, analyst group Cowen and Company made some corrections to their earlier predictions that SWTOR will sell about 1,5 million copies in the first year. They doubled the number now as a result of the huge number of preorders. They are also confident the game will have over 2 million active subscribers in the first year, while their previous estimate was 1 million.

Admittedly the already insane popularity of Star Wars: The Old Republic and the hundreds of thousands of pre-ordered units do give us a hint that this is going to be one massive game. A recently released MMORPG Rift sold over a million copies and it wasn’t nearly as hyped as SWTOR is.

The biggest questions is whether The Old Republic can really deliver a great gaming experience and keep most of the buyers subscribed. From what we know of the game so far it’s better than any other MMO released in the past few years, but still there are many unknowns and whether the players will stick with it is to be seen.

I for one think SWTOR can sell 3 million copies of the game within the first two months after release. With the growing anticipation, EA’s marketing and Bioware’s skills in making great games I can certainly see it happening. However I’m not sure they can keep 2 million subscribers engaged in the game for one year; about 1 million seems much more reasonable estimate to me. But, as with all predictions, I may be completely wrong.

What’s your opinion?